[세미나] 김혜미 교수

A Review of MJO predictability: Progress, Challenges, and Paths Forward Baroclinic instability and large-scale wave propagation on the planetary-scale atmosphere

김혜미 교수

2023년 10월 17 (화) 16:00

과학관 B102호

Abstract

There has been an accelerating interest in forecasting the weather and climate within the subseasonal time range. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (an organized envelope of tropical convection) is recognized as one of the leading sources of subseasonal predictability. In the past decade, the MJO prediction skill in dynamical prediction systems has exceeded the skill of empirical predictions. This presentation briefly summarizes the advances in understanding MJO predictability, prediction, and simulation. Recent progress has been mainly attributed to advances in theoretical understanding and improved numerical models, aided by multinational efforts through field campaigns and multi-model experiments. These efforts enable us to acquire detailed information on the systematic biases and errors in simulating the key physical processes considered important for MJO. While the state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts have shown MJO prediction skill up to 4-5 weeks, considerable challenges remain, such as the MJO Maritime Continent prediction barrier issue. Challenges and recommendations on new research avenues to fully realize the predictability of the MJO will be discussed.