May 10, 2019
Current Status of Renewable Energy Potentials in Korea and Toward Improved Solar Irradiance Forecast in the U.S.
김창기 박사님 (한국에너지기술연구원)
2019년 5월 14일 (화) 16:00
In December, 2017, the Korean Government announced the “Renewable Energy 3020 Plan” that renewable energy will be responsible for 20 % of generation in electricity by 2030. To accomplish this goal, 30.8 GW of solar power plants will be installed with 16.5 GW of wind power plants. There is still question if it is feasible or not. Korea Institute of Energy Research attempted to answer the question through renewable energy resource assessment. First step is to derive the theoretical renewable energy potentials which are consistent to the energy intensity or amounts from the earth itself. For example, annual solar insolation for target region is usually called theoretical renewable energy potential. However, there are technical limitations in installation of renewable energy systems as well as regulation due to environmental destruction. Consequently theoretical renewable energy potentials will be reduced by taking into account the technical limitations. This is definition of technical renewable energy potentials. Then, costs for generation the electricity by the renewable energy might be compared with those by traditional energy such as nuclear power or charcoal. Most of countries supports the subsidy or tax credits to business sector for the renewable energy system. Economic (Market) renewable energy potentials is available renewable energy power that can be produced at low cost with government policy, comparing to traditional power plants. In this presentation, current status of renewable energy potentials in Korea will be presented to answer the feasibility of “Renewable Energy 3020 Plan”. With great increase of solar power generation in the electricity grid system, electricity balance between load and supply has been suffering from the variability in renewable energy. From the feasibility study, it is projected for solar energy to produce the electricity enough to compensate for the energy load during daytime. After sunset, however, electricity load will be relatively raised within a couple of hours. To avoid black out crisis, back-up system should be required. In addition, fast moving clouds usually reduce the solar power generation within a couple of minutes, which leads to the large ramp rate. Large fluctuation of electricity affects the frequency of AC power system. Therefore, renewable energy power forecasts are essential to solve the problems in relevant with ramp rates. This presentation will introduce the forecasting methods in terms of forecast horizon in Arizona and California; satellite derived solar irradiance for short-term forecast and numerical weather prediction for daily ahead forecast.